Why The Presidential Election May Not Be As Close As You Think
Relying heavily on Nate Silver’s indispensable blog at the New York Times, Michael Tomasky sticks his neck out just a bit to argue this year’s election may not turn out as close as most expect:
There’s a secret lurking behind everything you’re reading about the upcoming election, a secret that all political insiders know—or should—but few are talking about, most likely because it takes the drama out of the whole business. The secret is the electoral college, and the fact is that the more you look at it, the more you come to conclude that Mitt Romney has to draw an inside straight like you’ve never ever seen in a movie to win this thing. This is especially true now that it seems as if Pennsylvania isn’t really up for grabs. Romney’s paths to 270 are few.
It’s that last number, 270, that’s key to Tomasky’s argument. Because from today’s vantage, no one can reasonably argue this year’s presidential election won’t feature a popular vote much closer than was the case last time, when Obama won by about seven percent. There have been some outlier polls here and there showing the President with a double-digit lead, but for months now the clear majority of national polling has shown a race of inches.
The aggregate poll shown above helps illustrate how competitive the race has been, at least since June of last year. What it doesn’t quite show, however, is the consistency that’s defined the polling thus far. Jigger with the outlay a little bit, and the Obama-Romney contest begins looking a bit more predictable. Below, I’ve changed the vote range (Y axis) from the above’s 35-55 to a simpler 0-100. The already minimal variation seen in the poll above becomes even further reduced.
We’re talking horserace right now, so forgive me the sports metaphor; but what the above reminds me most of is a basketball game that looks a little closer on the scoreboard than it does on the court. Let’s say it’s the Celtics and
You can read the rest of this article at:: http://ordinary-gentlemen.com/blog/2012/08/why-the-presidential-election-may-not-be-as-close-as-you-think/
Short URL: http://thepresidency.us/?p=18990
Posted by RobertButler
on Aug 4 2012. Filed under 2012 Presidential Campaign.
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