Someone Will Win The 2012 Election In A Landslide, Unless They Don’t, Say …
This part of the election year summer is a time when the people who write about politics should probably do more “getting drunk in a hammock” and less “gaming out electoral college scenarios,” if only because most Americans have taken a break from political coverage and the most volatile part of the election season is yet to come. But whatever, people are bored! And what’s the alternative? Have a national conversation about gun violence? Too hard, so electoral college scenarios it is.
If I had just 30 words to describe the state of the race, I would say, “Obama holds a narrow but not insurmountable lead, and the lousy state of the economy offers Romney a better than average chance to win a close race.” That would leave me with three words, which I would donate to a worthy charity. But even if I had several hundred words to describe the state of the race, I probably would not describe it as an imminent “landslide.” At least not in August of 2012.
But Dick Morris, who primarily exists as a counteragent to Clinton-era nostalgia, is doing just that, because he’s seen “numbers” that are more “real” than other, less “real” numbers, and these hypothetically add up to a Romney “landslide”:
On Friday, I saw the real numbers. These state-by-state polls, taken by an organization I trust (after forty years of polling) show the real story. The tally is based on more than 600 likely voter interviews in each swing state within the past eight days.
The trend line is distinctly pro-Romney. Of the thirteen states studied, he improved or Obama slipped in nine states while the reverse happened in only four. To read the media, one would think that Romney had a terrible month. In fact, the exact reverse is true.
I’m actually a little disappointed that Morris cited a hypothetical polling organization instead of a hypothetical “Bain investor,” because how hilarious would that have been? But the point is this: Morris speculates that it’s exceedingly likely that Romney will carry “Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey” as
You can read the rest of this article at:: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/07/2012-election-dick-morris_n_1752510.html?utm_hp_ref=elections-2012
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