Will Pennsylvania be a swing state in the 2012 Presidential Election
Will Pennsylvania in 2012 be the Florida of 2000 when it comes to the Presidential election. It is highly unlikely that Pennsylvania will play such a pivital role, because Pennsylvania is only marginally a swing state. Pennsylvania has not gone electorally for a Republican since George H. W. Bush in 1988. 2012 should be no different.
President Barack Obama has a 7.3 point average lead in Pennsylvania according to the latest Real Clear Politics poll average. Real Clear Politics (RCP) takes the average the major poll results, beacause individual polls tend to vary by a point or two or more. The RCP average can be looked at as a “super pool,” because the sample size of the collected polls is much large than an individual poll and also covers a larger time period.
Furthermore, Republican nominee Mitt Romney has lead in only one poll in Pennsylvania this year, and then by only 2 points back in February. Obama has lead by as much as 11 points, although most of his poll leads have been in the mid to high single digits. The Romney campaign will certainly spend money and time in Pennsylvania this fall, but don’t be surprised if the Romney campaign does in Pennsylvania what McCain ended up doing in Michigan in 2008 – pulling out and using his resources elsewhere.
For those of us in Northeast Pennsylvania, we will see a Romney and Obama presence, because NEPA is considered a swing part of the state due to a large proportion of conservative Democrats.
Obama has the luxury at this time of pursuing a number of strategies to get to the magic electoral number of 270. Unlike Gore in 2000, Obama could employ a strategy that all but ignores the expensive Florida media market. Romney, on the other hand, must win Florida if he has any chance of winning the Presidency.
What has changed since 2000, is the fact that Colorado (9), New Mexico (5), Virginia (13), and Nevada (6) have changed demographically in favor of the Democrats. In 2000, Gore
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