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North Carolina’s Ban on Gay Marriage Appears Likely to Pass

On Tuesday, North Carolina will vote on a state constitutional amendment that declares, “Marriage between one man and one woman is the only domestic legal union that shall be valid or recognized,” thereby banning recognition of same-sex marriage, civil unions and domestic partnerships of any kind.

Both recent polls of the state and an analysis of past ballot initiatives in other states suggest that the measure,  Amendment 1, is likely to pass, although there is ambiguity over the outcome because of voter confusion about what the amendment seeks to achieve.

North Carolina already has a statutory ban on same-sex marriage, but it is one the few Southern states that have not yet changed their constitutions to ban it. Although all three are sometimes considered Southern states, there is also no constitutional ban on same-sex marriage in West Virginia and Delaware, and same-sex marriage is legal in Maryland. However, the other 10 states in the former Confederacy all have constitutional bans on same-sex marriage and sometimes also civil unions.

Public opinion on same-sex marriage is shifting rapidly in the United States — with supporters of extending marriage rights to same-sex couples often finding themselves in the plurality and sometimes an outright majority in some polls.

The vote on Tuesday will be held in conjunction with the state’s Democratic and Republican primaries, which is headlined by a competitive gubernatorial race on the Democratic side in which a number of candidates are seeking to replace Bev Purdue, a Democrat who is retiring amid low approval ratings. Republicans are almost certain to anoint Pat McCrory, the 2008 gubernatorial nominee and a former mayor of Charlotte, as their nominee, but their voters have a number of competitive down-ballot races as well as the presidential nomination to vote upon.

Most recent polls show that voters are likely to approve the ban on same-sex marriages and civil unions, although results differ substantially from survey to survey because of the wording of their questions. 

The most recent poll was conducted by Civitas Institute, a conservative think tank whose poll results have generally shown little partisan bias in the past.

You can read the rest of this article at:: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/04/north-carolinas-ban-on-gay-marriage-appears-likely-to-pass/

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RobertButler Posted by on May 4 2012. Filed under 2012 Presidential Campaign. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry

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