President Romney becomes a real possibility
The presidential election is more than six months away. What can be assumed is a close contest, it’s going to be nasty and it will be dictated by unforeseen events.
But throw out conventional and predictable wisdom late in April. Do “experts” really know the election will be close or turn on unpredictable events? It’s almost a certainty it will get nasty, but will that mean both sides or one desperate to gain lost ground?
My prediction is Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election by a comfortable margin. The campaign will be a one-sided nasty affair and any unpredictable events will bemore than likely contrived events to boost a desperate president.
Romney will win because his candidacy will be relatively predictable, issue-focused and conducted as a not-too-nasty campaign. He wins if he runs precisely in this fashion. If he allows his campaign to degenerate into a name-calling travesty, he will lose.
Democrats are better at that game and the Axelrod campaign strategy will be produce exactly those tactics.
Romney must speak directly to the American people, as Ronald Reagan did so brilliantly in his 1980 contest with Jimmy Carter. A campaign transforming the election from petty bickering into a national referendum of Obama’s abysmal record. That will ensure almost certain victory if he stays on the issues/record and not the smears.
Consider these figures:
In the first quarter of 2012, Romney was facing a tough primary season with multiple opponents all gunning for him. In stark contrast, Obama had relatively clear sailing, no primary and a relatively quiet Congress. The economy was in slightly better shape than it had been during the rest of his presidency and no foreign catastrophes occurred.
January – April was rough going for Mitt while Barack enjoyed pastoral serenity from raging Republicans. But the president’s status barely improved at all. On January 1, 2012, RealClearPolitics cited Obama’s average lead over Romney at 46.6 to 45 percent. Today, he’s up 47.5 to 44.6 percent.
But the big difference is Romney’s momentum now that he is face-to-face with Obama.
Obama’s job approval hasn’t
You can read the rest of this article at:: http://www.examiner.com/article/president-romney-becomes-a-real-possibility
Short URL: http://thepresidency.us/?p=15315
Posted by RobertButler
on Apr 29 2012. Filed under 2012 Presidential Campaign.
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