Predict Obama’s odds in the 2012 election
-2.2 GDP change
34% approval rating
44% of election simulations
Poor Carter. His loss was overdetermined: The economy was shrinking, inflation was high, and the hostages were trapped in Tehran. He lost, just as the model predicted. Interestingly, the polls were tight in that election till the very end, making it a good year for those who focused on fundamentals rather than the campaign.
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