Predict Obama’s odds in the 2012 election
Jimmy Carter
-2.2 GDP change
34% approval rating
→
44% of election simulations
Poor Carter. His loss was overdetermined: The economy was shrinking, inflation was high, and the hostages were trapped in Tehran. He lost, just as the model predicted. Interestingly, the polls were tight in that election till the very end, making it a good year for those who focused on fundamentals rather than the campaign.
You can read the rest of this article at:: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/2012-election-predictor/
Short URL: http://thepresidency.us/?p=15120
Posted by RobertButler
on Apr 23 2012. Filed under 2012 Presidential Campaign.
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