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Predict Obama’s odds in the 2012 election

Jimmy Carter

-2.2 GDP change

34% approval rating

44% of election simulations

Poor Carter. His loss was overdetermined: The economy was shrinking, inflation was high, and the hostages were trapped in Tehran. He lost, just as the model predicted. Interestingly, the polls were tight in that election till the very end, making it a good year for those who focused on fundamentals rather than the campaign.

You can read the rest of this article at:: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/2012-election-predictor/

Short URL: http://thepresidency.us/?p=15120

RobertButler Posted by on Apr 23 2012. Filed under 2012 Presidential Campaign. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry

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