2012 Electoral College Forecast

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2012 Electoral College Analysis

 While it is extremely difficult to accurately forecast 50 state elections over 13 months in the future without knowing who the Presidential nominees will be, the race essentially boils down to ten swing states:  Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.  In current polls,  only five of those ten states are too close to call:  Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and New Mexico are too close to call.

My analysis currently shows President Obama winning 223 electoral college votes.  An unknown Republican is in the lead with 260 votes, and 55 votes undecided.

If the economy continues to stay the same or get worse, and if the right Republican candidate wins that party’s nomination, I predict that a landslide election in favor of the Republican on the scale of Ronald Reagan is a small but significant possibility.  It’s also very possible that Obama will select a new running mate for his Vice Presidential candidate.  Republicans will also make gains in Congress.

Robert Butler is the Austin Oracle.  He’s a consultant with Round Rockit Media.

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Posted by RobertButler on Sep 16 2011. Filed under 2012 Presidential Campaign, Features, Predictions, The Austin Oracle. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry